Nikit Abhyankar

El Niño is exposing a critical vulnerability in the Indian power grid.
40 GW higher peak demand. 13 GW less hydropower during peak.

The chart shows daily hydro electricity generation across every hydro plant in India, 2024–2026, alongside national peak demand. Red = 2026, Green = 2025, Blue = 2024.

During July–September 2026, India's peak electricity demand reached 270 GW, which is ~40 GW higher than a year earlier. At the same time, hydropower generation during peak demand hours fell by 13 GW. Total hydro energy generation has fallen by ~20%, relative to 2025.

The result? Severe pressure on the grid and widespread power shortages.

But the El Nino hydropower impact is very different regionally.
Southern India: Hydro generation fell sharply during the monsoon months.
Western India: Generation has been significantly weaker during several critical periods.
North-East and East: Surprisingly, hydropower generation has actually been higher than in previous years during much of 2026.
Northern India: Generation has been relatively resilient.

This is why national averages can be so misleading.
El Niño exposes a potentially dangerous double vulnerability: hotter weather drives electricity demand higher, while weaker rainfall and reservoir inflows constrain hydro - one of the grid's most valuable sources of flexible generation.

==> We need to fundamentally rethink how we assess weather-related risks in electricity planning.

Explore daily electricity generation and costs for power plants across India:
https://lnkd.in/gj_Xt6SD
Amol Phadke Mohit Bhargava Umed Paliwal Paritosh Jaiswal India Energy & Climate Center (IECC) Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) Soonee Sushil Kumar Narasimhan S.R. Ashwin Gambhir Ministry of Power Govt of India Neelima Jain Shruti Mahajan Deorah
#waterstress #india #grid #hydropower #elnino

How does India actually generate its electricity? ⚡
Let us analyze one power plant at a time? Every generating unit. Every day. For the last 3 years.

🔗Check out the dashboard with downloadable data here: https://lnkd.in/gj_Xt6SD
(regularly updated)

We've collated an extensive database of daily electricity generation across India - coal, gas, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, and bioenergy - covering 2024, 2025, and 2026 (through October 18), along with plant-level generation costs and electricity market prices.

And some fascinating patterns emerge:

🔹 Solar is booming. But coal generation is rising too. In 2026, solar generation increased 39% compared with the last year. Yet coal generation also increased ~8%. Existing thermal assets are crucial for maintaining the system reliability.

🔹 The geographical split between the solar / wind belt (west and south) and the coal belt (east and north) is clearly visible on the map.

🔹 Seasonality, really? Notice how flat the total national generation is across the year. But individual technologies and plants tell a very different story. Hydro and wind generation show enormous seasonal variations, with much of their output concentrated during the monsoon. The day-to-day variability in certain wind plants is very high - but together as a fleet is remarkably smooth within monsoon.

🔹 The El-Nino effect. During June–October, typically when hydropower generation peaks - it fell by 16% in 2026, with the entire shortfall made up by thermal generation.

🔹 Capacity scarcity in 2026 is visible in the split between market prices and generation costs. Demand increase in 2026 is clearly visible in increased thermal generation in September / October and consistent market price peaks during non-solar hours. In September, non-solar-hour electricity market prices surged 71% year-on-year, while the generation-weighted thermal variable-cost proxy increased just 4.4%.

This collated database and an interactive dashboard is now publicly available. You can examine individual plants, compare technologies and states, follow daily generation patterns, and explore electricity prices and costs.
🔗 Explore the dashboard: https://lnkd.in/gj_Xt6SD

A big shout out to Central Electricity Authority (Cea) GHANSHYAM PRASAD & Ministry of Power Govt of India for making the underlying data available in the public domain.

What patterns do you see? What else would you like to investigate using this data?

Amol Phadke Mohit Bhargava Paritosh Jaiswal Umed Paliwal Narasimhan S.R. Ashwin Gambhir Soonee Sushil Kumar
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) NITI Aayog Official
India Energy & Climate Center (IECC)
#India #Electricity #EnergyTransition #PowerMarkets

Where is India's missing 50 GW of coal power?

India is facing a serious power crunch. Electricity markets are screaming about peak-power shortages. Even in October, states like Tamil Nadu are reportedly buying emergency power at prices as high as ₹37/kWh (~$380/MWh). Yes, ₹37 per unit!

And the peak-demand season of April–May is still ahead.

On paper, India has ~230 GW coal, 20 GW gas, 9 GW nuclear, and ~50 GW hydro capacity, against a non-solar-hour peak demand of ~250 GW. Shouldn't that be manageable?

Lets start with coal.

The chart below tells a striking story. Despite having ~230 GW of installed coal capacity (including lignite), India's maximum actual coal output rarely exceeds 180GW, even during periods of high demand.

Where is the missing ~50 GW?
* 20–40 GW (>10%) of coal capacity is out of service even on peak-demand days, due to planned maintenance or forced outages.
* Coal plants also consume roughly 8–10% (~20 GW) of their own generation for auxiliary operations, reducing the electricity delivered to the grid.

The result? Maximum observed coal output is only about 75–80% of installed capacity, even during high-demand periods. It never exceeds 180 GW.

And this is not a one-off problem.
The chart shows a remarkably persistent pattern over nearly three years. 230 GW of installed coal is NOT the same as 230 GW of dependable power.

With demand continuing to grow and the much higher-demand April–May season still ahead, India urgently needs more dependable, dispatchable capacity.

Battery storage offers perhaps the fastest near-term solution. Batteries can be deployed within months where grid connections are available, absorb inexpensive solar electricity during the day, and deliver power during critical evening and nighttime peaks. India cannot afford to wait years for new coal capacity to address shortages that could emerge within months.

Ultimately, reliability should be measured not by how many megawatts we have installed, but by how many megawatts can actually deliver when we need them most.

What should India prioritize before next summer: improving coal availability, accelerating battery deployment, or making peak demand more flexible?

#IndiaEnergy #GridReliability #EnergyStorage #PowerMarkets #IndiaEnergy #GridReliability #EnergyStorage #PowerMarkets
Amol Phadke Narasimhan S.R. Rahul Tongia Ajay Shah Soonee Sushil Kumar Ashwin Gambhir Alexander Hogeveen Rutter
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) Ministry of Power Govt of India